Bringing the Story Up to the Present

Questions on the practice final? Course concepts

Finish by noon for student experience surveys.

Bruce Mehlman (P `25):

Voters in the U.S. and around the world are unhappy with the direction of their countries and keep voting to “throw the bums out”. In the U.S. there were just 3 change elections (where the party controlling the House, Senate and/or White House changed) out of the 10 held in the 1960’s & 70s. In the 80’s & 90’s it happened 4 times in 10 elections. This century? 11 out of 13 elections. 

One reason is partisan parity (scroll down to see data on leaned partisanship.)

Another is a sharp decline in institutional confidence:

Why?

Events:

• Iraq & Afganistan
• Katrina
• Great Recession
• Scandals

Trends

• Shrinking Middle Class
• The Diploma Divide
• The Velvet Rope

Enter Trump I -- why did he win?

Tax Cut 2017 (Johnson 444-445) and 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill (CMC alum Isabel Lane coauthored this summary).

Health care (Johnson 452-453)

• Trump's promise
• Trump realizes that it is complicated
• Path dependency: Obama care becomes popular
• The tradeoff triangle:  cost, access, quality

COVID (437-439)

• Issue-Attention Cycle:  1918 Flu epidemic and subsequent epidemics.  Bush 43 develops a playbook after reading The Great Influenza.  Also World War Z
• Shifting, inconsistent health advice undermined trust
• Warp Speed: parallel processing of vaccines
• Global inflation hurts incumbent parties all over the world
• COVID and inequality

Back to the Future